Reply to Leslie re: Curse of Expertise baseline

Leslie – Great q! If there were no prime, we suspect that the baseline saliency prediction (for a naive viewer) would be somewhere in the middle of the three primed plots, with a particular focus on the ‘top’ and ‘bottom’ percept, as the ‘mirror’ percept is a bit harder too see unless it is explicitly cued. So yes, bias would be a change from baseline. We measured this baseline explicitly in the most recent study (including the WSJ graph of employers hiring vs # seniors in the major) and found salient features that weren’t even included in the ones that we highlighted! It’s interesting to measure these baseline, but note also that it’s not essential to make the point that people’s predictions are strongly biased by the expertise manipulation.
-Cindy & Steve